Qinwen Zheng was picked to beat Sofia Kenin in two sets on Day 4 of the WTA Mutua Madrid Open, with her clay-court track record doing most of the work in the forecast. Zheng has played only a handful of matches this season because of an elbow issue, but her past results on the surface still make her the more trusted name in Madrid.
That case rests on real evidence. Zheng reached the Rome semifinals in recent years, made the French Open quarterfinals and won Olympic gold on the clay of Roland Garros at the Paris Olympics. She moves well on clay and, when her timing is there, her power can overwhelm opponents quickly. A meeting with Kenin was covered in a separate preview, and the logic in that matchup was the same: Zheng’s best level on clay is higher than her recent volume of play.
Kenin is not arriving without resistance. She fought hard for a first-round win in Madrid and showed some fight on clay in Charleston, but her 2026 season has been tough overall. That makes the second-round assignment more demanding, especially against a player whose best results have come on the very surface being used this week.
The Madrid draw also featured another second-round call involving Victoria Mboko and Caty McNally, with Mboko projected to win in two sets. Mboko entered as a Top 10 player after a bye into the second round and was playing her first clay tournament of 2026 after spending time away. In a tournament built on thin margins, the clay résumé tends to decide which names carry the clearest edge.