Magda Linette will face Iva Jovic in the round of 64 at the WTA Madrid event on Thursday, with the match scheduled to start at 9:55 AM ET. Dimers' tennis model makes Jovic the most likely winner and gives her a 58% chance of beating Linette.
The model also pegs Jovic at 56% to win the first set, while Linette is given a 53% chance to cover the games spread at +3.5. The over 20.5 games carries a 56% chance of landing, which leaves the handicap market tighter than the straight-match projection. For readers looking at the top play, the recommendation is Magda Linette to win.
This is part of the WTA Madrid Open predictions coverage, where model-based analysis breaks down the winner, first set, spread and total games for Thursday's match. The numbers point in different directions, which is what makes this one more than a simple favorite-versus-underdog call.
Jovic has the edge on the moneyline in the model, but Linette's spread number and the over on games suggest a more competitive match than the winner pick alone might imply. That split is the main takeaway heading into the 9:55 AM ET start.