The Minnesota Timberwolves need Julius Randle on his A-game if they are going to pull off a first-round upset of the Denver Nuggets. That puts the spotlight on a player who has been central to Minnesota’s offense all season, and on a matchup that could punish every lapse.
Randle’s best version gives the Wolves exactly what they need. He can punish smaller defenders, finish at a high level and create for others with a size-based playmaking package that makes him look like a championship-level second option next to Anthony Edwards. Chris Finch has empowered him just as much as Edwards, which is part of why Minnesota has leaned on him so heavily.
For the first 20 games, Randle played like a borderline All-NBA forward, averaging 23 points, 7.5 rebounds and 6 assists while shooting 50.2/35.6/81.3. That stretch is the version Minnesota needs now, because Denver’s defense is only a bottom-10 unit and there are chances to score if the Wolves can force the issue early.
The problem is that the numbers did not hold. After the All-Star break, Randle averaged 19 points, 6.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 3.2 turnovers on 45.9/29.4/76.4 shooting splits, a drop that reflects the kind of night-to-night inconsistency that can change a series. He can settle for bad jump shots, make slow decisions and turn the ball over, and when that version shows up Minnesota can look short on a dependable second option.
That is where Denver’s best defender comes in. Aaron Gordon is tailor-made to make life frustrating for Randle, and even against a defense with flaws, the Nuggets have a matchup piece that can disrupt the very player Minnesota most needs to steady the offense. If Randle is efficient and decisive, the Wolves can make this a series. If he is not, the gap between his best and worst games may be large enough to decide their season.