Luke DiVasta liked CF Montreal at +145 for Saturday’s ny red bulls vs montréal matchup, even with the New York Red Bulls priced at +155 and the draw at +255. He also pointed to the total, where over 3.5 goals sat at +140 and under 3.5 goals was listed at -175.
The Red Bulls entered at 3-2-2 and seventh in the Eastern Conference, while Montreal was 1-0-6 and 15th. Montreal had gone 1-0-4 in its last five games and carried a minus-11 goal differential, but it also had six of its first seven contests on the road and was coming off a 2-1 home loss to Philadelphia last weekend.
The numbers behind the pick favored New York more than the table did. The Red Bulls ranked third in MLS in shots on target and third with 14.86 expected goals, while Montreal had 9.24 expected goals and had managed just 1-2-2 in its last five matches. Julian Hall had scored four times for New York, giving the visitors one more clear attacking marker than Montreal had shown in recent weeks.
That gap is what makes the price on Montreal interesting today. The Whitecaps have not been part of this matchup, and the table alone does not tell the whole story: Montreal had been forced into a rough opening stretch away from home, but the Red Bulls arrived with better form and far stronger underlying attack numbers. For bettors, that makes DiVasta’s choice less a statement about records than a bet that the market has pushed Montreal too far because of where the season has started.
Saturday’s slate also included another matchup DiVasta flagged, with Nashville SC at 5-1-1 and first in the Eastern Conference against Atlanta United at 1-1-5 and 12th. Nashville had won four of its last five, allowed four goals all season, ranked third in goals scored per 90 minutes at 2.14, and led MLS in shots on target allowed with 12 through seven games. Atlanta had scored once in its last three matches and carried 9.37 expected goals, another sign that the day’s betting board was being driven as much by performance trends as by standings.
For Montreal, the next step is simple: turn a schedule burden into results before the standings harden around it. For the Red Bulls, the question is whether their shot volume and chance creation finally start to look like the edge their numbers suggest.