Apple is on track to take 46% of North America’s foldable phone market in its first year, according to a new Counterpoint Research report, a forecast that would make the iPhone Fold the most important new entrant in the segment overnight. The same report says Samsung’s share would drop from 51% in 2025 to 29% in 2026, leaving the longtime leader in the unusual position of holding a minority share.
That kind of swing matters because Samsung has spent seven generations refining book-style foldables while Apple is still preparing its first-ever device in the category. The report says the shift would also put immense pressure on Motorola and Google, both of which have built their own foldable businesses around the idea that Samsung’s early lead gave them room to grow.
Apple’s rumored advantage is a creaseless design, a feature that has become central to the latest iphone rumors around the iPhone Fold. But the latest leaks also point to a wider footprint for the device, and that is where the story gets less tidy for Apple. A broader body can make a foldable easier to use on the outside screen, but it also raises the question of whether the phone will end up heavier and thicker than rivals that have already learned how to slim down.
Samsung’s current benchmark is the Galaxy Z Fold 7, which has been described as having a svelte profile when unfolded and a lightweight build. That gives the company a clear reference point as it looks toward the Galaxy Z Fold 8 and the next round of competition, while Apple is still trying to prove that its first foldable can justify the premium that comes with being new.
The tension in Counterpoint’s forecast is simple. If Apple lands a strong first year with the iPhone Fold, Samsung’s foldable advantage in North America does not just narrow — it flips. The market would no longer be defined by the company that created the category, but by the one that arrived late and may still be able to set the pace.