Congratulations to the Buffalo Sabres, who ended their playoff drought before it was old enough to drive. Now, the Boston Bruins are standing between Buffalo and its first playoff series win since 2007.
The Sabres enter with the model favoring them to advance, and the numbers behind that call are hard to ignore. Buffalo’s scoring rate sits fourth in the league, while Boston’s power play has managed just 5.1 goals per 60 since the break and the Bruins have been beaten up on high-danger passing in the top six.
That gap fits the bigger picture. The Bruins came into the season projected for 80 points with just a 16 percent shot at making the playoffs, and the teams now carry a plus-14 gap in Net Rating. Buffalo, by contrast, has finally turned a 14-year drought into a postseason berth, the kind of milestone that changes how a market sees itself.
Boston still has the pieces that once made it look like a safe playoff team, but the model has seen a club that has been streaky all year at five-on-five and vulnerable in ways a veteran core was supposed to prevent. The result is a matchup that does not look like a classic bracket upset; it looks like a team that has already outperformed its forecast meeting a favorite in name only.
Let the PDO Bowl begin. The Sabres have already taken the biggest step by getting back to the playoffs, but what comes next is sharper: whether this season ends as a celebration of survival or as the one that finally restores a series win that has been missing since 2007. Whoops! Good for those guys.