The Senior Citizens League said Tuesday it expects Social Security’s 2027 cost-of-living adjustment to be 2.8%, the same increase it projected for 2026. Under that estimate, the average retired-worker benefit would rise by $56.69, from $2,024.77 to $2,081.46.
The forecast lands at a moment when the program’s future is already under strain. Social Security could face a potential benefits cut of around 24% in 2032 unless Congress acts, a warning that has intensified the fight over how to shore up the trust funds without squeezing retirees.
The group, known as TSCL, issues a fresh COLA prediction every month using a statistical model built around the Consumer Price Index, Federal Reserve interest rates and the national unemployment rate. It said the latest version of that model, v1.2, was released in January 2025 and updates its date handling so data are processed by the federal fiscal year rather than the calendar year. TSCL also said the revised system puts less weight on earlier predictions made during the same fiscal year.
That technical detail matters because the monthly forecast has become a closely watched signal for older Americans trying to plan around inflation. TSCL said 95% of seniors oppose cuts to current retirees’ benefits, and 66% oppose cuts for future retirees, a reminder that even modest changes to the formula or to benefits can collide with strong political resistance.
The COLA estimate also arrives as lawmakers and budget hawks weigh another idea: a proposal from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget called the “Six Figure Limit.” It would cap payments at $50,000 per person or $100,000 per couple and, according to the group, close about three fifths of Social Security’s projected shortfall over the next 75 years.
That proposal underscores the central split in the debate. One side wants to preserve benefits as they are, even as the system nears a financing crunch. The other argues that without some kind of cap or trim, the math will force deeper pain later. For now, TSCL’s 2.8% forecast suggests the 2027 check would rise at the same pace as 2026 — but it also shows how little room Social Security has to absorb the pressures building behind it.