Mark Carney’s Liberals could win a slim majority in Canada’s House of Commons on Monday if they carry three by-elections in two Toronto-area ridings and one seat near Montreal. The party already holds 171 of 343 seats, one seat shy of a technical majority, and victories in Toronto would be enough to push Carney over the line.
The Liberals are widely expected to keep Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale in Toronto, seats formerly held by former defence minister Bill Blair and Chrystia Freeland. That leaves Terrebonne, a Montreal suburb, as the race that could determine whether Carney governs with a majority or continues to rely on a razor-thin margin in the chamber.
The weight of the contest is in Terrebonne, where the Liberal candidate won by a single vote in the April federal election before Canada’s top court nullified the result in February over a clerical error involving a postal ballot by Elections Canada. The rerun has turned a routine by-election into a test of whether Carney can turn his early momentum into something more durable.
Carney has already strengthened his parliamentary position with five defectors, including four former Conservatives and one member of the left-wing New Democratic Party. That helped give the Liberals breathing room before Monday’s votes, but it also underscores how unusual the party’s coalition has become under him. Political scientist Semra Sevi called the shift “extraordinary,” saying Carney has built a big tent that is drawing lawmakers who would not normally be associated with the Liberal Party.
The broader story is not just about seats. Under Carney, the Liberals have moved to a more politically conservative position than they held under Justin Trudeau, ending the consumer carbon tax and pushing to make Canada an energy superpower while shrinking the public sector workforce. Polls have also put the party 10 to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives, which means the immediate question is less whether the Liberals can survive than what kind of majority, if any, Carney will get to shape heading into 2029.
Sevi warned that the same breadth that makes the party look strong can also make it harder to govern. “The complication, however, is that the tent may now be so big that there isn’t a lot of ideological coherence in it,” she said. If Carney does secure a majority on Monday, he will do so with a coalition that looks more stitched together than settled.