The St. Louis Cardinals open a four-game series against the San Diego Padres on Thursday night in Southern California, with Matthew Liberatore facing Michael King in the opener. The game is set for 10 p.m. ET on, and St. Louis is being lined as the underdog to win outright.
The setup gives the Cardinals a real shot to keep rolling. They have won seven of their last nine contests, and they have taken five of Liberatore’s seven starts. The left-hander enters with a 4.39 botERA and a 99 Stuff+, while the Padres will hand the ball to King, who has a 2.95 ERA but a 5.21 botERA and a Stuff+ of 93, down from 101 a year ago.
That contrast is why the matchup is getting attention. King’s surface numbers have been better than his underlying metrics, while St. Louis has been productive against right-handed pitching with a 109 wRC+. San Diego’s offense has struggled against left-handed pitching with an 88 wRC+, and Petco Park, with a Park Factor of 97, is not expected to add much power to either side. The source backing the pick said St. Louis is being supported to spring the upset behind the arm of the underrated Liberatore.
The Cardinals also arrive with their bullpen in better shape than usual. All of their top relief arms are available after Tuesday’s rainout left them well-rested, and Riley O’Brien has been especially sharp with a 1.43 FIP while throwing just three pitches in the last four days. San Diego’s relief corps has been a strength too, led by Mason Miller and a group that owns a 3.18 SIERA, second-best in MLB.
That is what makes Thursday’s opener more than a single game. The Cardinals are trying to prove their recent surge is real on the road, while the Padres have to show that a staff built around King can match the numbers that make them look vulnerable underneath the ERA. If Liberatore gives St. Louis another steady start, the rest of the series gets a lot more interesting for the favorite everyone expected to trust.