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Sean Manaea, Mets open finale as heavy favorites after blowout split

By Kevin Mitchell May 7, 2026

The and were back on the field Thursday afternoon for the decisive game of their three-game set, with taking the mound in a series that had already swung hard in both directions. The Mets were listed as -207 favorites at home after the clubs split the first two games by a combined 22 runs.

Washington won 14-2 on Wednesday night after New York opened the series with an 8-0 shutout, turning a routine divisional matchup into an early test for two teams heading in different directions. The Mets entered Thursday at 10-20 and in last place in the , with a minus-34 run differential that left little margin for another stumble.

The weight of the afternoon went beyond one game because the Mets needed a response after getting outscored by a combined 14 runs in the first two nights. had homered in back-to-back games against his former team, and he was listed at +313 to hit another home run Thursday, a number that reflected both his form and the public interest around his return to face Washington.

There was also a clearer pitching edge on paper for New York. was scheduled to start for the Mets on Thursday afternoon, while carried an 8.49 ERA and had led the Nationals to just two wins in six appearances this season. Washington’s bullpen had not helped much either, entering the day with a 5.01 ERA and 24 home runs allowed in the 2026 season.

That is why the finale mattered: not just as the last game of the series, but as a chance for the Mets to stop a slide that had already put them in the division basement. Another loss would have deepened the sense that New York’s problems were not limited to one bad week, while a win would at least keep the series from becoming another marker of how far the club had to climb.

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